The Canadian Real Estate Association has lowered its forecast for home sales in 2026 following a weaker-than-expected start to the year influenced by global economic uncertainty and higher borrowing costs. CREA now expects approximately 474,972 residential properties to be sold in 2026, representing a modest one per cent increase from 2025 but significantly lower than the 5.1 per cent growth previously forecast in January. The national average home price is projected to rise 1.5 per cent to $688,955, a downward revision from earlier expectations, while March home sales declined 2.3 per cent year over year and benchmark prices continued to trend lower.

Economic pressures including higher inflation linked to rising oil prices have increased the likelihood of interest rate changes, pushing bond yields higher and raising fixed mortgage rates. CREA noted that rising mortgage costs may cause potential buyers to delay purchases during key spring months as they wait for improved affordability. Analysts suggest that while modest sales growth and price stabilization are still expected, continued economic uncertainty creates the risk of a longer and deeper housing market slowdown.

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